Tell him you disagree, and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.
Leon Festinger (1919 – 1989)
By the end of World War II, social psychology had become an important field of research, spearheaded in the USA by Kurt Lewin, the founder of the Research Centre for Group Dynamics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1945.
On the staff at the centre, was one of Lewin’s former students, Leon Festinger. Originally attracted to Lewin’s work in Gestalt psychology, he later took an interest in social psychology. In the course of his research, Festinger observed that people continually seek to bring order to their world, and a key part of that order is consistency. To achieve this, they develop routines and habits, such as establishing regular mealtimes and choosing favourite seats on the bus to work. When these routines are disrupted, people feel very uneasy. The same is true, he found, of habitual thought patterns or beliefs. If a very strong opinion is met with contradictory evidence, it creates an uncomfortable internal inconsistency; Festinger called this “cognitive dissonance”. He reasoned that the only way to overcome this discomfort is to somehow make the belief and the evidence consistent.
Unshakable Conviction
After reading a report in a local newspaper in 1954, Festinger saw an opportunity to study the reaction to just such a cognitive dissonance. A cult claimed to have received message from aliens warning of a flood that would end the world on December 21st; only true believers would be rescued by flying saucers… Festinger and some of his colleagues from the University of Minnesota gained access to the group, interviewing them before the designated apocalyptic date and again afterwards, when the events had failed to transpire.
The now famous Oak Park study of this group, written up by Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter in When Prophecy Fails, describes the reaction of the cult members. Where common sense might lead us to expect that the failure of their prediction and consequent cognitive dissonance would cause the cult members to abandon their beliefs, the opposite occurred. As the day of reckoning drew near, another “message” came through, declaring that, due to the group’s dedication, the world was to be spared. Cult members became even more fervent believers. Festinger had anticipated this; to accept the contradictory evidence would set up an even greater dissonance between past belief and present denial, he argued. This effect was compounded if a great deal (reputation, jobs and money) had been investigated in the original belief.
Festinger concluded that cognitive dissonance, or at least the avoidance of it, makes a man of strong conviction unlikely to change his opinion in the face of contradiction; he is immune to evidence and rational argument. As Festinger explains; “Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts and figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.”
During the current COVID-19 pandemic, this cognitive dissonance can be seen very clearly with the rampant spread of misinformation via social media channels. If any group can understand the toll that misinformation can have on the publics understanding of science, it is climate scientists. For years, they’ve been trying to convey the findings from a ceaseless stream of studies showing that the world is warming, whilst combating misinterpretations and outright ‘fake news’. A similar infodemic – a surplus of information both legitimate and misinformed – now plagues the COVID-19 outbreak.
In the internet era, when research papers are readily available, everyone can become an expert on COVID-19. But pundits can also cherry pick the data which best suits their beliefs and seem to speak with authority. These types of personalities appear in traditional media such as television, but their work truly thrives on social media sites and video platforms such as Youtube.
One of the biggest predictors of whether someone is likely to disavow COVID-19 (andn also climate change) is political affliction. Professor John Cook from George Mason University in USA, has conducted research which showed that political leaders have the ability to significantly influence a person’s attitude about climate change, and he suspects that the same can be said about COVID-19.
For example, in the USA, a number of polls have shown that an overwhelming majority of Democrats are more likely to take the pandemic seriously, and thus more likely to wear masks and abide to social distancing guidelines, whilst only a minority of Republicans are likely to do the same. According to Cook, this political polarisation was an “unavoidable tragedy”, and he pointed to Pres. Donald Trump’s early and persistent dismissal of wearing masks and social distancing as major factors driving the divide we see today.
When our tribal leaders send us cues, the tribe tends to move in that direction. Leadership matters.
Professor John Cook (2020)
Fewer people in the UK and US would “definitely” take a COVID-19 vaccine than is required for herd immunity, and misinformation could push these levels further away from that goal, suggests new research.
The study, which is under peer review (pre-print publication available below!), was led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. It asked 8,000 people about their willingness to accept a potential COVID-19 vaccine. Prior to being exposed with misinformation, 54% of those surveyed in the UK said they would “definitely” accept a vaccine, 41.2% in the US.
After being shown online misinformation, that number dropped by 6.4% (UK) and by 2.4% (US).
It is estimated that a COVID-19 vaccine will need to be accepted by at least 55% of the population to provide herd immunity, and some scientists anticipate even higher numbers will be needed. The researchers who conducted the new study say the findings can help inform COVID-19 vaccination messaging and engagement strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of misinformation in the UK and US.
As COVID-19 vaccine trials continue, there have been widely circulating false stories about the virus as well as potential vaccines and treatments. Rumours include claims that 5G mobile networks are causing the virus, that the pandemic is a conspiracy or a bioweapon, and that vaccine participants have died after taking a candidate COVID-19 vaccine – none of which are true.
We can live in hope that eventually the misinformation will dissipate and people will take the virus seriously so that the nation can return to some form of normality. That is why it is important that we share accurate science with accurate evidence and not myths from 99p newspapers.
If you would like to find out more about cognitive dissonance or misinformation, as well as the pre-print publication on COVID-19/Misinformation, I have added some resources for you, enjoy!
Loomba, A. de Figueiredo, S. J. Piatek, K. de Graaf, H. J. Larson. (2020) Measuring the Impact of Exposure to COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation on Vaccine Intent in the UK and US.
Science & Tea 